The Brief, powered by IPA Europe – Where do we go from here?

Two months since COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, Europe’s reactions are tangling between laissez-faire and Titanic-mode. While many celebrate the gradual lifting of lockdown measures and nations consider when and how to restart their economies, uncertainty remains the disease’s relentless companion.

Worldwide, the number of coronavirus cases has soared above four million people across 177 countries, and more than a quarter-million deaths. The 1918 Spanish Flu, to which there have been so many references in recent weeks, killed up to 100 million people worldwide. Thank God we are nowhere near this.

In Europe, still the worst-hit continent, leaders urge caution as ‘Operation Unlock Europe’ gets underway, with health and economy caught in a balancing act between saving ravaged businesses and preventing a new outbreak.

In several countries, people have taken to the streets to protest against the restrictions, and leaders have opted to go solo instead of agreeing a single European approach.

Trust in national governments, European institutions and expert opinions has meanwhile started to falter once again, not only because political and economic measures to counter the pandemic’s impact have been slow but also because of what people perceive as a painfully obvious lack of leadership.

Among all this uncertainly, however, one thing becomes clear: A return to pre-lockdown normality could be a long time coming.

COVID-19 might stay lurking among us for at least another 18 months to two years — until 60-70% of the population has been infected, a team of pandemic experts have predicted in a recently released report, comparing data from past pandemics, dating back to the 1700s, and the current health crisis.

In three scenarios, they draw a gloomy picture.

One predicts a larger wave of illnesses in fall/winter of 2020 and subsequent smaller waves in 2021. The researchers say this model would likely “require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down the spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.”

The other two scenarios involve either recurring infection peaks or smaller waves of illness over the next two years, a “slow burn” transmission.

The odds, they say, are not in humanity’s favour: Out of the eight previous flu pandemics, seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one, while some had “smaller waves of cases over the course of two years” after the first outbreak.

Historically, pandemics usually have two types of endings: a medical one, which occurs when the virus and death rates have been contained, and a social one, when societal fear vanishes.

When this pandemic ends, people will be eager for a fresh start. But until then, uncertainty will be a constant companion.

What if we return to normal and everything starts over, or even gets worse? What will it mean for our (mental) health and the health and peace of our societies?

Will the ‘heroes of this crisis’ be quickly forgotten and we’ll just go back to the old habits that caused the breakdown of health care systems in the first place?

Will the crisis have made people more conscious about the ailments of our systems, including the vaguely defined ‘European solidarity’?

When the pandemic ends, how well will we manage to pick up the pieces?

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The Roundup

Make sure you stay up-to-date with everything to do with coronavirus across Europe’s capitals with EURACTIV’s comprehensive overview, regularly updated with the help of our pan-European network of reporters and media partners.

In case you missed the launch of EURACTIV Italia on Europe Day, read our new network member’s exclusive interview with Italian PM Giuseppe Conte.

Also have a look at the wide-ranging interview with Russia’s Ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, who discussed Victory Day, Russia’s relations with its wartime allies, conspiracy theories about COVID-19, sanctions, disinformation and more.

Alone, we fail. Together, we overcome. This was true 70 years ago and still is today, writes EPP Secretary-General Antonio López-Istúriz White in an op-ed for EURACTIV.

The European Commission will adopt a comprehensive strategy on Wednesday which aims to make sure governments reopen for tourism business in a coordinated manner. The EU executive will also wade into the divisive voucher vs refund debate.

In Germany, there has been a shortage of doctors for years. The coronavirus crisis shows how the country has profited from immigration in recent years.

Four members of parliament have gone on hunger strike in Serbia. Two opposition MPs are protesting over Kosovo, while two others from the ruling party are taking a stand because they are dissatisfied with the opposition’s behaviour.

A European Commission study on the effectiveness of the EU’s code of practice against disinformation has criticised the self-regulatory nature of the framework, suggesting that “sanctions and redress mechanisms” should be put into place in order to ensure compliance with the rules.

Germany’s solar industry is in deep crisis and may implode in the summer. Solutions have been around for a long time, but internal power struggles and debates over distance rules between wind turbines are holding back progress.

The European Commission is examining German plans to support the fibre optic industry. The Christian Democrat (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group asked for early approval, while the fixed network industry association BREKO is opposed to the measures.

Look out for…

• Foreign Affairs Council (Defence)
• Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides participates in a videoconference of EU health ministers
• European Parliament’s LIBE Committee on internal border controls within the Schengen area

Views are the author’s

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